How does the steel price go when the hottest high

2022-08-18
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How can the steel price go when the hot and rainy off season comes

the domestic steel market price weakened as a whole this week, and the performance of some varieties stopped falling and rebounded in the second half of the week. In the first half of the week, with the weakening impact of the futures market and blank prices, the market bearish sentiment gradually spread, and the spot quotation was mostly high callback. However, from the perspective of inventory, since most varieties are not under great inventory pressure for the time being, the consolidation wait-and-see is maintained after the callback operation. Near the weekend, the electronic disk market began to rebound, but due to the transaction pressure, the rise of various varieties was limited

Tangshan express

in the afternoon of the 27th, Tangshan ordinary billet was stable, and some local steel mills delivered 3600, and some steel mills in Changli delivered 3600, including tax. The specific transactions are as follows:

the conditions that Tangshan section steel should meet in the morning trading test: the angle of work was stable, the groove fell, the intraday fell, and now the mainstream quotation I-shaped, angle steel 3920, channel steel. The overall transaction was general, and some were weak

Tangshan small narrow band rose 10 after falling, and mainstream manufacturers reported 3890. The overall market transaction was acceptable, and some were average; Tangshan 355 strip steel market spot fell compared with yesterday, now excluding the tax mainstream report, the market transaction is general

quotation of Tangshan building materials: the high-speed wire 3920 is reduced by 40, and the thread anti-seismic three are 4050 and 4150. The quotation is flat compared with yesterday, and the coil screw 4200. The steel plant is shut down, and the market resources are in short supply

Tangshan scaffold pipe mainstream rose 20, including tax report 4160, and the transaction was weak

Tangshan hot roll stable, 3.0 roll 4130, 5.5mm mainstream Kaiping 4110, manganese Kaiping 4260

Tangshan medium plate is stable, the mainstream quotation of MM common plate is 4320, and manganese plate is 4470

the transaction of billet direct delivery is general, and there are individual transactions of warehouse stock of about 3660 including tax. After the decline of downstream finished materials, the transaction of individual varieties can be, and some are weak

in the afternoon of the 27th, Tangshan Pufang billet was stable, and some local steel mills delivered 3600, while some steel mills in Changli delivered 3600, cash including tax

steel market

construction steel: the price of construction steel in the domestic market fell sharply this week. This week, due to the sharp decline of futures snails and the continued decline of terminal demand, the mentality of merchants has weakened, and the spot price has fallen sharply in a row. Near the weekend, although the futures snails showed an oversold rebound and the spot low stopped falling and rebounded, the downstream demand did not continue to release, and the overall confidence was still insufficient

price: as of May 25, the average price of 20mm deformed steel bars made of HRB400 in 24 cities across the country was 4065 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from May 18; The average price of hpb300 8mm high-speed wire in 24 major cities across the country was 4223 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton from May 18. In terms of subregions, the mentality of East China was poor, and prices led the decline sharply; South China, central China, northwest and other places followed closely; However, due to tight inventory in the southwest and North China, the overall decline was relatively narrow

inventory: on the 24th, the inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 5.6588 million tons, a decrease of 413100 tons on a weekly basis; The stock of wire rod is 1.7282 million tons, and the R & D capacity of Zhou Huan is reduced by 203000 tons to continuously improve

forecast for next week:

1. Although the market inventory continues to decline sharply this week, the market confidence is insufficient, and most businesses operate mainly by shipping

2. Recently, the output of steel mills has risen slightly continuously, and the market supply may increase to a certain extent compared with the previous period

3. Recently, many places in China have entered the rainy season, and many places in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing heavy rain, which has affected the release of downstream demand to a certain extent

on the whole, it is expected that the construction steel price may be weak and volatile next week

hot rolled coil: this week, the domestic hot rolled coil market price first suppressed and then increased

price: the average price of 3.0mm hot rolled coil in 24 major markets in China was 4287 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; The average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil was 4229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week

inventory: on the 24th, the total national hot rolling inventory was 2.081 million tons, down 134700 tons from last week, down 410800 tons from last month, down 771100 tons from the same period last year

forecast for next week:

1. At present, the ex factory price of steel mills is high, and traders are basically unwilling to increase the order volume, so the enthusiasm for ordering is not high

2. Market resources are still tight, specifications are out of stock, and the high arrival cost of traders still supports prices

3. Recently, the prices in South China and East China are basically the same, and the price difference with North China is about 200 yuan/ton. There is room for Northern resources to go south, but considering that there are many maintenance manufacturers in June, the overall supply of hot coils is tight

on the whole, futures rose late on Thursday, boosting market confidence. Coupled with the impact of high costs, at present, traders' low price sales sentiment is not strong, and under the influence of traders' low orders and continuous decline in inventory, prices are also stuck, and short-term market prices may still maintain a volatile pattern

medium and heavy plate: the domestic market operation trend this week is consistent with expectations, and the market sentiment is relatively stable, but the negative factors continue to show signs of superposition, and the price is expected to show a volatile operation trend next week

price: this week, the domestic market as a whole was slightly weak, the market sentiment was loose, and it was more short than last week's expectation, but the factors that the market price continued to decline were not concentrated. As of the close of this Friday, from the average price of 23 cities across the country, the price of 8mm ordinary board was 4697 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton compared with May 18; The average price of 20mm ordinary plate was 4408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton compared with May 18; The average price of 20mm low alloy plate was 4577 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton compared with May 18

inventory: the total inventory of medium-sized plates nationwide this week was 828400 tons, a decrease of 19300 tons compared with the previous period (May 18, 2018). Compared with the same period last year (May 26, 2017), it decreased by 305900 tons

some of the main concerns are as follows:

1. Tight capital this year is the main tone. From next week, near the end of the month, some trade chambers will have payment pressure from steel mills, and short-term prices will have a slight impact

2. According to the statistical signs of the decline of both factory and social libraries, the demand link still has strong elastic support

3. From the perspective of steel mills, orders are sufficient, and the pattern of strong prices continues in the short term

4. On the emotional side, the market as a whole is relatively calm. At present, it is relatively recognized that the price difference between market varieties continues to remain high. At this stage, the market is still in a long and short game, and there is no obvious direction. The price is expected to continue to consolidate

on the whole, the national medium and heavy plate market may be dominated by narrow range shocks next week. The domestic market operation trend this week is consistent with the water absorption period of the pre improved nylon, and the market sentiment is relatively stable, but the negative factors continue to show signs of superposition, and the price is expected to show a volatile operation trend next week

cold rolled coil: this week, the national cold rolling operation was weak and stable, the market transaction performance was general, and the mentality of merchants turned weak, especially on Friday, after the plate change order 1 extensive plastic granulator was combined, and the intelligent plastic granulator rebounded after experiencing a shock downward, the spot price was completely unmoved. Merchants said that the high transaction was not optimistic, even if it was a little higher than the market yuan/ton, the shipment would be affected immediately, Therefore, there is basically no big fluctuation in the spot price of cold rolling this week

price: as of press time, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolling this week was 4649 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week. The main market prices are as follows: the quotation of 1.0mm Angang Tiantie cold coil in Tianjin market is 4490 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The quotation of 1.0mm WISCO cold coil in Shanghai market is 4550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; The quotation of 1.0mm Angang Cold Coil in Guangzhou is 4610 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week

steel plant research: according to the research data this week, among the 29 cold rolling production enterprises (a total of 47 cold rolling production lines), a total of 7 production lines were shut down and 12 production lines were unsaturated production. The overall operating rate was 85.11%, up 2.13% from last week; The capacity utilization rate was 81.29%, up 0.67% from last week; The weekly output was 822800 tons, an increase of 6700 tons from last week; The inventory of the steel plant was 433600 tons, a decrease of 3300 tons from last week

inventory: 24 Japan monitored the inventory of 23 cities. The cold rolling inventory this week was 1.1092 million tons, a decrease of 6600 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 43800 tons compared with last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 tons. Steel mills: Shougang introduced the futures price settlement policy in May this week, in which annealing North China, East China and South China respectively make up 330, 270 and 320 yuan/ton (excluding tax). According to the accounting of steel mill agents, minus various concessions, the actual order cost of Shougang in May is expected to be yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the current spot price in the market. However, according to the author, Angang Steel will not make up in May, which means that the trader resource cost of ordering Angang Steel in May will reach yuan/ton, which is about yuan/ton inversely linked to the current spot price

in general, the national cold rolling is weak and stable this week, and it is expected to continue consolidation next week, so it is difficult to have large fluctuations

section steel: the domestic section steel market price fluctuated this week, and the general feedback of the spot market was that high-level transactions were blocked. In addition, the overall performance of futures and billets in the first half of the week was relatively weak, so the spot quotation was loose. However, at present, the overall spot resources are still tight, so the willingness of merchants to operate quickly and deliver goods at a profit is not strong, and the quotation of some merchants with small goods remains high. As the futures market rebounded and the mentality improved near the weekend, some resource prices rebounded slightly due to the shortage of specifications

price: as of the close of this Friday, the average price of 14 major markets nationwide: the national average price of 200*100h section steel was 4214 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from last week; The national average price of 300*300h section steel was 4230 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week; The price of 400*200h section steel was 4256 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week; 588*300h section steel was 4234 yuan/ton, with the price unchanged from last week; 5 × angle steel 4301 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week; 16 # channel steel was 4328 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week; 25 # I-beam was 4390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week

at this stage, although the overall market inventory is low and the specification resources are in short supply, the market transaction price is generally upside down due to the still high ex factory price of steel mills, and the transaction blocking phenomenon is increased due to the poor terminal demand. Therefore, the merchants' enthusiasm for ordering is not high, and the market inventory is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. On the other hand, the next two months are the off-season of demand over the years, so the mentality of the spot market is somewhat short for the future market, and the price is relatively weak

it is comprehensively expected that the price of Shanghai profile may be weakened next week

it is predicted next week that the domestic steel market price is weak this week, and some varieties rebound slightly after falling. For the follow-up market, first of all, from a long-term perspective, the market is about to enter the traditional off-season demand, and the mentality of merchants is not optimistic, so the operation is also mainly to maintain shipments. Secondly, at this stage, the ex factory price of steel enterprises is generally high, the willingness of merchants to order is relatively low, and the subsequent output of some varieties has increased. Therefore, for steel enterprises, the attitude of continuous price support may be loose. In the market, under the current situation of relatively high spot costs and low resource pressure, there is limited room for price reduction. In addition, there is no obvious inventory pressure in the current market, so it is comprehensively expected that the domestic steel market price may weaken in the next week

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