How far is China's "shale oil and gas revolution" from us
"compared with the United States, China's shale energy revolution is relatively slow. China has become the third major shale gas producer after the United States and Canada, but China's' shale oil revolution 'is far from coming." Jin Zhijun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and President of Sinopec petroleum exploration and Development Research Institute, said at the China energy transformation high level forum a few days ago
some experts at the meeting said that China's shale gas development is indeed faster than shale oil. Although China's shale gas has made good progress, its scale has not yet exceeded 8billion cubic meters, the exploitation cost of a single well is still relatively high, and there is still room for a breakthrough in economy
cost reduction and mechanism are the key
in 2016, China's shale gas production reached 7.882 billion cubic meters, ranking third in the world after the United States and Canada. In addition to civil use, the commercial development of shale gas in China has formed a complete industrial chain
"although shale gas development in China started late, it is the third country to form a scale and industry after the United States and Canada, with an output of 10 billion cubic meters in the near future." Zhang Dawei, director of the mineral resources reserve evaluation center of the Ministry of land and resources, said
Jin Zhijun said that China has not yet carried out a nationwide resource evaluation. Different units have made preliminary estimates of China's shale gas resources using the analogy method and the volume method, and the results are quite different, but the overall results show that China is rich in shale gas resources. "By 2020, shale gas production will strive to reach billion cubic meters, and by 2030, billion cubic meters. PetroChina is about 50billion cubic meters in Southeast Sichuan, Sinopec is about 30billion cubic meters, and some uncertain areas."
"If we want to complete the plan, we are facing great challenges. First of all, the deep layer below 4000 meters has brought great difficulties to the construction due to the reduced brittleness and enhanced oiliness of the rock. In addition, a part of low-yield oil and gas has been obtained in a wide area, including Erdos, while the onshore natural gas has not yet made a breakthrough. The current development cost is high, so the low-cost war distillery will lose 2% of its products in the production process Is the key to the next step of technological innovation. " Jin Zhijun said
experts at the meeting said that the most important point is to clarify their purchase needs. Only when the cost of single well exploitation is reduced to less than 50million yuan, can shale gas exploitation be economical. Shale gas exploitation is worth looking forward to, and the key to progress depends on the implementation of the overall plan for oil and gas system reform
"to develop shale gas on a large scale, the top priority is to establish a cooperative development mechanism for a variety of investment entities. With the help of oil and gas system reform, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign capital can jointly enter, which is the most critical." Jin Zhijun addedSome experts said that the development of shale gas will become a breakthrough in the reform of exploration and development system, and the proportion of upstream exports to emerging countries will also be greatly increased According to the China natural gas development report (2017) released by the forum at the same time, since 2017, the construction of shale gas demonstration areas (pilot areas) in Changning Weiyuan, Zhaotong, Fuling, southern Sichuan, etc. will further explore new modes of competitive transfer of shale gas exploration blocks, and promote the scale expansion and commercial development of shale gas
on August 18, the first auction right of shale gas exploration right in China was settled in Guizhou, and Guizhou industrial investment (Group) Co., Ltd. won the shale gas exploration right in Anchang town (including Anye No. 1 well) of Zheng'an county with 1.29 billion yuan
the report shows that in addition to Guizhou, other provinces and regions have also selected a number of shale gas exploration blocks for competitive transfer. In addition to shale gas, the Ministry of land and resources entrusted the Shanxi provincial government to implement the approval and registration of some coalbed methane exploration and exploitation in Shanxi administrative region
the auction of shale gas exploration rights is an important exploration of China's oil and gas exploration rights transfer system, and is of great significance to promote the reform of China's oil and gas system and the reform of mining rights transfer system
it is understood that at present, many foreign companies and experts hold a wait-and-see attitude towards participating in China's shale gas investment, and their willingness is not strong. At present, the market supervision system is not perfect, and it is urgent to establish a fair and equitable shale gas control mechanism
shale oil is still being explored.
experts at the meeting said that China's shale oil is still being explored. In 2010, Sinopec obtained less than 5 tons of production from drilling in Henan Oilfield. With the production of 250000 tons of horizontal wells drilled in 2011, the production of two horizontal wells is now about 500000 tons, which is not cost-effective on the whole
PetroChina chose to find good dense sandstone in shale and made some achievements. In 2014, new tight oil fields were discovered in the Ordos Basin. In 2015, with the support of the national energy administration, Sinopec and PetroChina established two R & D centers for precision and reliable dense oil and shale oil respectively, and won the construction of national key laboratories at the same time in 2015. "PetroChina has made some gains in the development of tight oil. Sinopec is directly exploring shale oil, and we still have a long way to go." Jin Zhijun said
Jin Zhijun said that the development of shale oil depends on the future oil price. "At present, the balanced oil price target of shale oil is $60, and the balanced oil price of shale oil in the United States is about $40. We still have a long way to go. At present, the technology is not mature and faces great challenges," Jin Zhijun said, "The biggest threat comes from low oil prices, so it is crucial to predict the future oil prices. We are confident that the future oil and gas prices will reach the range of $60 to $80, so shale oil is promising."
at present, the shale oil field is mainly invested by enterprises in the research stage and exploration. The experts at the meeting suggested that a new round of shale oil resource potential evaluation should be actively carried out to provide a basis for national strategic decision-making. In addition, it is also necessary to strengthen technological research and development, establish shale oil demonstration areas, and strengthen policy support
Jin Zhijun said that to change the current situation of shale oil development, the government needs to build fiscal and tax preferential policies applicable to shale oil exploration and development, a cooperative development mechanism of multiple investment entities, and a mechanism to encourage the experimental application of new technologies