The hottest oversold white horse growth constructi

2022-10-14
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Oversold white horse + growth construction machinery rebound opportunity is coming

oversold white horse + growth construction machinery rebound opportunity is coming

China Construction machinery information

Guide: after a sharp decline, we believe that there is a rebound opportunity in the second quarter, and we can pay attention to oversold white horse stocks and growth small companies. Industry review in the first quarter of 2008: the machinery industry achieved a year-on-year increase of 32.03% in total industrial output value in 2007, with construction machinery and machine tools as the two major industries

after a sharp decline, we believe there is a rebound opportunity in the second quarter, and we can focus on oversold white horse stocks and small growth companies

industry review in the first quarter of 2008: high-speed growth but some decline

in 2007, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry increased by 32.03% year-on-year, and the output value of the construction machinery and machine tool industries increased the fastest, 42.91% and 36.89% respectively

in 2008, the growth rate of production and sales in the machinery industry fell. From January to February, the total industrial output value of the whole industry increased by 26.15% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 7.17 percentage points year-on-year; The sales output value increased by 27.79% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 4.96 percentage points year-on-year. The export growth rate of the machinery industry also fell, and the year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value fell: agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, cultural office equipment, petrochemical general, heavy mining, machine tool, electrical and electrical appliances and mechanical basic parts industries

industry outlook in the second quarter of 2008: the general trend is declining, but the data in the second quarter will not be bad, and there is a rebound opportunity Due to the strong correlation between construction machinery and fixed asset investment, we judge that with the deepening of macro-control, the sales revenue of construction machinery will decline. According to the law that every 3 times and every 8 times is a high point in history, 2008 is a high point, and then it will decline (maintaining the judgment of the annual strategy report in November last year)

The monthly sales data of construction machinery is good. Our analysis is related to the opening of credit in January. As March and April are the traditional peak seasons, the sales volume is likely to increase. Under this background, coupled with the low overall valuation, there will be a rebound. Please note the rebound

industry investment theme in the second quarter of 2008: white horse stock oversold rebound + small growing companies

we believe that the opportunity mainly comes from the oversold rebound of white horse stock and the growth of small growing enterprises to resist cyclical fluctuations

for those white horse stocks that have fallen significantly, if the future growth is relatively certain, such as the performance improvement through extension expansion or management improvement, they can still be invested. In addition, white horse stocks can be recognized by institutions when they rebound, and the rebound range is relatively large. The varieties that can be concerned here are Zoomlion, Sany, heli and Liugong

for those small-scale enterprises, the market space they face is huge. If they are in a period of rapid growth, although they are in cyclical industries, their valuation can be calculated according to growth stocks. If such companies fall to the average valuation level of construction machinery, it will be a good buying opportunity. The varieties that can be concerned are Shanhe intelligence, Fangyuan support, etc

recommended stocks: Anhui Heli, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shanhe intelligent

industry review: rapid growth but some decline

rapid growth in 2007

according to the main functions of the machinery industry association, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry in 2007 was 730.448 billion yuan, an increase of 32.03% year-on-year. From the perspective of the seven industries, the output value of construction machinery and machine tool industries increased the fastest, with 42.91% and 36.89% respectively, and the growth rate was in the forefront

in particular, the construction machinery industry increased by 5.77 percentage points in 2007, especially on the basis of the high growth of the previous year. Among construction machinery products, forklifts, special equipment for cement and excavators increased by 41.14%, 51.67% and 31.01% year-on-year respectively, and the output reached a new high in recent years

the export of machinery industry increased rapidly, and the trade surplus continued to increase. The annual industrial export was US $192.915 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40.9%; Imports amounted to US $168.774 billion, an increase of 20.84% year-on-year, with a cumulative trade surplus of US $24.141 billion

the export of construction machinery continued to maintain rapid growth. In 2007, the export amount was US $8.7 billion, an increase of 73.5% over the previous year, the import was US $4.94 billion, an increase of 25.7% over the previous year, and the trade surplus was US $3.76 billion. Products with an export value of more than US $100million and a fast growth rate include concrete machinery, cranes, rollers, graders, bulldozers, etc

it fell back in the first two months of 2008

due to the impact of macro-control, weak global economic growth and strong snowfall in February, the growth rate in 2008 fell back. In 2008, the industrial added value increased by 15.4% year-on-year, significantly slower than 17.4% in December 2007 and 18.5% in the whole year of 2007. The added value of the machinery industry increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year; The export delivery value was 191.4 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5%, down 14.4 percentage points

in 2008, the growth rate of production and sales in the machinery industry fell. From January to February, the total industrial output value of the whole industry was 1142.744 billion yuan, an increase of 26.15% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 7.17 percentage points year-on-year; The sales output value was 1108.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, and the growth rate fell by 4.96 percentage points year-on-year

the export growth rate of the machinery industry also fell. From January to February, the export delivery value of the whole industry was 180.866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.92%, and the growth rate fell by 14.85 percentage points. According to the industries, the year-on-year decline in the growth rate of oral delivery value is:

Agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, cultural office equipment, petrochemical general, heavy mining, machine tools, electrical appliances and mechanical basic parts industries

the share price fell sharply

due to the market decline and changes in expectations for the future, the performance of machinery stocks in the first quarter was relatively poor, and the decline of machinery index exceeded that of the composite index

from the perspective of recommended varieties, Zoomlion and Xiamen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. outperformed the index, while Anhui Heli lagged behind the market due to the impact of financing

according to the data of the previous two months: the output of concrete machinery and forklift truck increased by 89.8% and 82.3% year-on-year respectively, while the output of shoveling machinery increased by 29.2%, and the output of compaction machinery decreased by 15.4%. The overall situation is good. We analyze that this situation is related to the opening of credit in January. As March and April are the traditional peak seasons, the sales volume is likely to increase. Under this background, coupled with the low overall valuation, there is likely to be a rebound

investment theme of construction machinery industry in the second quarter: white horse stocks fell and rebounded + small growth companies

under the situation of uncertain growth caused by inflation, macro-control led to increased industry volatility, which led to a decline in performance on the one hand, and a decrease in valuation on the other. Under this background, it becomes more difficult to invest in the construction machinery industry. We believe that the opportunities mainly come from the over fall rebound of Baima shares and the growth of small growth enterprises to resist cyclical fluctuations through growth. In addition, it must be noted that this is a rebound opportunity

white horse stocks oversold and rebounded

for those white horse stocks that have suffered a relatively large decline, if the future growth is relatively certain, for example, through extension expansion or management improvement, they can still be invested. In addition, white horse stocks can be recognized by institutions when they rebound, and the rebound range is relatively large. The varieties that can be concerned here are Zoomlion, Sany, heli and Liugong

small growth companies

for those small-scale enterprises, the market space they face is huge. If they are in a period of rapid growth, although they are in cyclical industries, their valuation can be calculated according to growth stocks. If such companies fall to the average valuation level of construction machinery, it will be a good buying opportunity. The varieties that can be concerned are Shanhe intelligence, Fangyuan support, etc

recommendation of key stocks in the second quarter of 2008

Anhui Heli (600761): bear market varieties, weak cyclicality

1. The diversity of downstream demand industry distribution determines that the forklift industry has strong cyclicality, and the company's valuation is generally higher than other varieties of construction machinery

2. The competitive advantage of the company can be summarized as follows: at the front end, we can continuously launch new products through research and development to combat the decline in gross profit margin caused by competitor imitation, at the middle end, we have the most complete industrial chain to internalize external profits, and at the back end, we can promote sales and services through effective incentives

3. With the introduction of the company's equity incentive, the previous super stable practice will be changed, and the growth will exceed expectations

4. The company's financing led to a sharp decline in the share price, and the temporary failure to raise the price led to a decline in profit growth. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company

risk factors: declining valuation level; The impact of rising steel prices on profits; The impact of people's appreciation

Zoomlion (000157): main business diversification + equity incentive

1. The company's main business includes concrete machinery, lifting machinery, road machinery and other products, which can partially resist risks

2. The competition pattern of concrete machinery and hoisting machinery is relatively stable, avoiding the sharp decline in gross profit margin caused by competition

3. Due to its unique history and special status, the company has obtained unique advantages that other enterprises cannot have

4. The positive impact of equity incentives is that the growth rate of the company's revenue and profit is higher than the industry average

risk factors: declining valuation level; The impact of rising steel prices on profits

Liu Gong (000528): white horse stock with the lowest valuation

1. The company is a traditional white horse stock and a leader in the loader industry. It pays attention to brand and service and pursues differentiation strategy

2. The excavator business contributes more and more to profits, and the company's share continues to increase

3. The company's management team is relatively excellent and its strategic positioning is relatively clear

risk factors: the decline of valuation level; The impact of rising steel prices on profits

Shanhe intelligence (002097): resist the cycle through rapid growth

1. Small construction machinery is related to the stock of infrastructure. The demand increases with the increase of the stock of infrastructure and the amount of maintenance required over time, and its periodicity is not obvious

2. The company is a small company facing the big market. Its development ideas are clear, its management team is excellent, and its revenue and profit can maintain a growth rate of more than 50% in the next few years

3. We predict that the growth rate of revenue and profit of the company will reach about 60% in 2008 and more than 50% in 2009. It is predicted that EPS will be 0.89 in 2008 and 09 respectively, and EK sales will climb 6% to 679 tons and 33 yuan compared with the same period last year. Considering the high growth, the company's valuation should be higher than the industry level

risk factors: the valuation level declines; The impact of rising steel prices on profits; The impact of people's appreciation

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